Well I do hope that there will be Wild Horse-1 activity this year, else the whole episode of drilling Snow Leopard-1 was a waste of time.
If you put your hindsight goggles on and go backwards now based on what is now known :
The plan was to drill Wild Horse-1 first, then Falcon-1 (as of early 2018 presentations).
Wild Horse-1 (Block IV) has only just(during SL-1 drilling it seems) received its final permits (chemical use) and so could not have been drilled until now anyway.
Falcon-1 (Block V) the 2nd planned well earlier this year was downgraded based on new 3D and removed.
Snow Leopard-1 (Block V) was the only drill ready prospect and which was the first to get all permits in place. MATD are also short of the required spend level of the license of Block V. It was rushed in as the replacement for Falcon-1
I would imagine Mike and his team were between a rock and a hard place here. Fox-1 the new exciting prospect from the new 3D is not drill ready and not permitted, permitting ongoing. Wild Horse-1 which was always your first drill, is not ready as final permits (chemical use etc..) are not in place. Falcon-1 which was your 2nd drill in the schedule is suddenly not worth drilling (too small) compared for Fox-1 so cannot be moved to be 1st.
You either cancel your 2018 drilling schedule (going down like a lead balloon)to allow Wild Horse-1 and Fox-1 back to back in 2019 or you put Snow Leopard-1 into play and drill that while you try to get the final permits for Wild Horse-1 to allow a seamless move from SL-1 to WH-1 in 2018 and go to the local temple to pray you get the Wild Horse-1 final permits before SL-1 finishes drilling.
If I go back now - with knowledge today - you really can see why the 2nd fund raise happened and why it was at 10p (compared to the earlier one at 6.5p - thats all down to Fox-1).
Looking at the prospects - Wild Horse-1 has simple faulting, its a 4 way dip (dome) and has soft amplitude anomalies. Pretty good target. Always was the 1st one they wanted to drill.
Snow Leopard-1 has complex faulting and therefore high sealing risk. In all the presentations after removing Falcon-1 there is nothing much exciting said about SL-1. Look yourselves....its as if someone writes the slide saying, yeah, we got this one too.
Fox-1 - extremely exciting, they spend 4 pages of their latest presentation detailing Fox-1. 3 way dip, normal faulting, bright spot on 3D, live oil shows in coring etc.. etc.. etc...
I feel the only reason they drilled SL-1 was to actually put the 2018 drilling into play and to bide time to get the WH-1 permits complete so they could drill WH-1, whilst also ensuring the spend on Block V was up to the level needed so as not to have any issues with Fox-1 which is also in Block V. And yes, in hindsight now I would say SL-1 was a strati-graphic test well in effect, one which also raised the spend level on Block V to the level required for compliance with the license. It had a (very limited) chance to strike oil and didn't and no surprise there.
Had I known prior that WH-1 was still waiting for final permits I might have put two and two together prior to events, but I didnt, and anyway, its far easier in hindsight, everyone is an expert after the event, as always :)
I dont blame Mike and his team for doing it this way if that is what happened, it makes sense in hindsight, just you started drilling with perhaps what was "off record internally" your worst prospect.
So in summary, my view, SL-1 was just a license spend compliance, waiting for WH-1 final permits, mobilize the rig and get in in the area ready for WH-1, fill in for the downgraded Falcon-1, in effect strati-graphic test well. And in view of that - I really cannot see them not spudding Wild Horse-1 asap, its a must and IMO, it WILL happen very soon.
All IMO, just my thoughts.
