S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 15, 2018

Analysis for the Week of September 17, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 14, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 801004 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past 5 days since the reaction low made on Fri. Sep. 7, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. and since we have made a new high. This warns that a year-end closing below 690339 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2022 becomes possible.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 44 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2002 from which we have witnessed a 16 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 1 year ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 0. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 864342 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 866237 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 760423. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 946065 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 680595. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 28%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 801004, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 7.53% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come October in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 813330 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 813330 to 765952. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 789039.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 813330, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st of 2017. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a moderate move of .0310% in a stark panic type decline.

Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of August 27th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 793331 made back during the week of July 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of June 18th. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 617719 made the week of August 21st. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 787393 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 813330, which was created during the week of August 27th.

Critical support still underlies this market at 680595 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 months. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 744310 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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