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Tuesday, September 11, 2018 3:22:24 PM
I'll respond to your post since you are the one who asked me where do we go from here after having done all this work.
I'm posting a summary, thus far, that I think we can "know' based on having determined how the events were divided up prior to 36 months, and how the censors were divided up prior to 36 months. It's in the form of an image because I think it's easier to read this way.
Anyone is welcome to comment on it - I've been known to get my numbers wrong - initially anyway, lol. So sharp eyes are welcomed.
I'm also posting the final chart (I think) below that summarizes all of the events, and all of the censors. I've corrected the errors (leprecon found one step down count error near the end), and I think on my previous counts, I had missed one event on the unmethylated count at the very beginning). Anyhow, I think it is all correct now. It seems like all the numbers add up correctly, as can be seen in the summary above.
IMO, what I think would be interesting to determine is how many of the alive methylated and alive unmethylated will make it to 36 mo. I think this can be determined based on the percentages given us as to how each will survive to 12, 24 and 36 mo. I'm working on this myself, and will post what I think those numbers might be perhaps later today. Then those who are better at figuring this stuff out can critique me, or tell me if I'm right. Of course, you can feel free to do it yourself as I've provided the methylated and unmethylated patient breakdowns in the summary above.
If we can hypothesize how many patients should be alive at 36 months based on these numbers, I think that can tell us what I think a number of us are seeking to determine. And now that the numbers from the chart appear to be correct, we can do that.
One thing to remember is that those percentages of survival for each were based on patients that were randomized 2 treatment to 1 control. However, it certainly appears that 31 of the final patients were not randomized and were ALL put on treatment. That will likely improve those percentages, and that may be already reflected as there were 70 patients ≤ 36 months still alive, likely not LTFU, which seems high.
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