NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

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Flipper, I got a chance to count up the events for both the methylated and unmethylated charts.
For the unmethylated, since it was dashed, I filled in the lines with grey lines and that made it easier to count them.


I actually marked each event by number and I think it's fairly accurate.



Here's what I found:

OS events ≥ 36 months

Methylated: 65 (there are two more but they are after 36 months)

Unmethylated: 114

Total: 179 OS events prior ≤ 36 months

And you'll remember that I had 64 censored or presumably alive patients ≤ 36 months


Methylated: 39

Unmethylated: 25

So 179 OS events + 64 alive all prior to 36 months = 243 total patients

With 331 total patients in the trial minus 243 = 88 patients remaining


So it would appear there were 88 patients that have lived past 36 months thus far.
And are these patients that have determined the 88.2 km derived curve.


Since we think (you and I) that 44 patients were alive as of 3/17, it would seem that 44 had died. Of course, it's possible that I'm off by some number in the counts, but it seems obvious to me that there are well past 44 patients (not 2 or 3 as some have suggested) who have lived past 36 months at this time.


There were 162 total unmethylated patients in the trial minus approx. 114 who died minus approx. 25 alive or censored (both shown on chart) leaving approx. 23 unmethylated that lived ≥ 36 months as of 3/17.

There were 131 total methylated patients in the trial minus approx. 65 who died minus approx. 39 alive or censored (both shown on chart) leaving
approx. 27 methylated that lived ≥ 36 months as of 3/17.

Actually, it looks like unmethylated has done surprisingly better than what is typical. There were 23 who appear to have lived past 36 months with another 25 who were still alive between 18 and 36 months. By my estimations, about 17 of them should live to 36 months, which, if this is accurate, would be 23 + 17 = 40 / 162
= 25% unmethylated patients live ≥ 36 months.

From the NWBO press release for the journal, it had stated that the mOS for unmethylated GBM was 12.7 months. So if approx. 25% end up living past 36 months, that would really be impressive.



Here is the chart with the OS events and censored counts: