Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 1, 2018

Analysis for the Week of September 03, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 31, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 120670 immediately is trading down about 7.83% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading sideways since the last high made 3 trading days ago at 121570We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of June 11th at 131300 for 9 weeks. We have been consolidating since the week of August 13th.

Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2019, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 130930 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 15% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 123540 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 117960. This provides a 4.51% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 12%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 120670, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.32% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 116270 but closed on the positive side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.

The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 13th at 116270, which was down 18 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of August 13th, which has been a move of.0435%. Distinctly, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 9 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 118490 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-519 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 523 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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