Sparky....It’s been a brutal experience investing in NWBO. A great deal of shareholders both retail and institutional are well into the red and certainly every shareholder who invested over 18 months ago is guaranteed to be in the red if they have not been able to average down (but increase their risk) ....and with what superficially looks to many like Mgt indifference to shareholders and the share price. At the same time you have a well oiled machine of smart posters and self appointed experts constantly reminding us all that this will go to zero or the SEC are going to press charges against Linda or indeed the trial has failed and been covered up.
We have seen numerous articles by Adam F and of course the P5 report leading to the biggest drop in SP over a period of a year or two but what we have grown familiar with and have no choice but to accept if we want to stay informed is the constant arguing/bashing and damage caused by a clear strategy around starving the company of cash....this is played out on all forms of social media and is picked up in almost every search online - a big red flag to any investor ...which in turn leads to deals with the devil and of course dilution and a rinse and repeat exercise leading to our current position. Management appear weak, out of depth and out of touch. It’s driving shareholders nuts and it’s now almost impossible to identify genuine disgruntled and fed up longs with shorts or a paid stock basher that consistently hums a negative tune. It looks doomed and heading to oblivion and some like yourself are near to throwing in the towel. All perfectly understandable in the face of Mgt silence and failed timelines and promises.
My view is of a Mgt team that are trying to navigate across very stormy and uncertain waters...
Firstly the science needs to work safely and both the clinical efficacy and value for money need to meet the criteria that NICE or the FDA demand....that’s enough just by itself when immunotherapy in general is breaking new ground with trial designs and measurable outcomes. In our case it’s obviously taken much longer than everyone including Mgt expected. It’s really led to the destruction of the share price and a loss of market confidence. This trial should have ended already right? Maybe if that had happened it will have proved a point but failed to meet the criteria....win the battle and loose the war.
Next they need to take on the 900lbs gorilla that appreciates how the system works and more importantly the weaknesses around rules and regulation that delivers the opportunity for making huge profits by shorting a stock....they found something out and made a big bet and will do anything both legal and maybe otherwise to ensure they win. It’s obvious to me the stock trading is highly unusual and not genuine. It’s all about proving who is doing what and not that it’s actually happening.
Next they need to raise cash to see this across the finish line while most institutional investors have been scared off....they need to pay for trials, pay for manufacturing, pay for legal and commercial services, patents, wages, keeping the lights on and fighting a rear guard action in terms of false lawsuits. The dilution has been painful and it can only go so far.....
It’s fair to say timelines and expectations have been lost, missed or broken which has led to further suffering for shareholders....
I think I’ve painted a gloomy but realistic picture of the circumstances which we all find ourselves in.
Now the upside potential -
Management have stayed focused on the big prize, not swerving or ducking tough choices despite everyone giving them advice 24/7 for the last few years....it’s amazing how many anonymous experts are able to tell us how this will end without knowing all the facts or being qualified to do so. Mgt know more than us and they are sticking with it despite all the pressure. That speaks volumes to me.
If the science works and all indications are that it is breaking new grounds in terms of safety and efficacy then it’s right that Mgt take as long as they need to ensure the maximum number of patients meet the criteria that the regulatory bodies demand.....even if it’s a very painful wait. Frustrating and damaging as it seems it’s the right thing to do....there is no second shot once unblinded.....I would prefer the results to be so strong as to kill off any counter arguments as it’s quite clear any short fund will exploit any weakness. We need very strong results to achieve the best value for shareholders and the best outcome for patients. I don’t think it ultimately helps genuine shareholders if Mgt say anything around timelines or results which could be used to attack or damage our chances. Nobody knows which way the regulators will go but patients want DCVax-L so it’s looking positive. Nov 8th is a critical timeline with NICE.
Next I hope Mgt have had the resources and tenacity to find out what’s been going on with the share movement and who is behind it.....the unusual trading that keeps this pinned down looks highly suspicious and it’s possible and in fact looks likely that a large number of fake shares appear to be used to control the stock. We need a lawsuit with belt and braces evidence. Any share held in a nominee account by the primary brokers is subject to being loaned out without permission of the beneficial owner (and they hide behind data protection rules to facilitate this) and I would not be shocked if it was loaned out beyond the shares actually held. It’s very profitable for the primary broker and way more profitable than executing trades. So if a Hedgie wants to short NWBO they have access to an almost limitless pit of shares....easy when you know how. I believe Mgt will address this issue when the time is right.....you poke a stick at a gorilla then you better be prepared to deal with the reaction....so the timing is critical. The nearer we get to positive clinical news the more risk these funds will take to hold it down. Timing is critical....imho
The company needs cash....ideally non dilutive and plenty of it. I don’t know where from or how much exactly but they need enough to stop more toxic finances before results day and if Management are all over the science and the manipulation then the weakness is cash....so I hope they are able to deliver on this in a shareholder friendly way.....
The science, dealing with the manipulation and raising cash are all inextricably linked together and if I was part of NWBO Mgt I would not say anything which might help non friendlies......and this may appear to the detriment of shareholders but I believe it’s probably in our best interests given what has happened to our SP to date.
Mgt get one shot at this.....no room for any mistakes. Keep the faith and whatever you decide to do just avoid getting sucked into an emotional rollercoaster by others.
