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[123tom]

A look at the China internet ETF

an aborted Wave 4/sideways and rally wave 5

This Fibonacci geometric Elliott wave pattern, starts out at 34 with all the right math tracks to a peak around 55/56 as a first wave top. From there at 56, the true Fib math pattern would have a pullback wave to retest the 45 area (which it is Finally doing now.) But back then, it made No wave 2 pullback at all, but continued, as bubble hyper rallies do, into the 'Wave 3 ' target zone at 68 area. The true Elliott pattern from here at the Wave 3 peak (68/70 area ) would be looking at a shallow sideways sliding 'Wave 4' that shows a target zone around 60/62 area , to hold, and then begin the Wave 5 rally to target 90 area.

So with this as the initial road map, now I'm looking at the way it was skewered and morphed over time, to become this.
now we get the wave 2 pullback

We're seeing the 'Wave 2' now, instead of 9 months ago. We already got the Wave 3 to target 68. The wave 4 Failed to hold as a Wave 4,and the current collapse is now become the Wave 2 . so what can I make of this pattern . IF the current pullback/collapse, holds strong support at 45/42 area and the china market rallies this back up, we could see a repeat rally that targets 68 again , and next time, holds the 'Wave 4' in the 60's, around 62, and bullish market movement regains the initial wave pattern and targets 90 for a nice double that started around this 45 pullback . That would be a bullish turnaround for this ETF, the China internet sector.

But getting back to look at the skewered 'reality' of what actually happened in the last year, the rally was looking decent until it just collapsed,when the 50ma Failed to hold. It broke down at the 50ma. and now turned a happy sideways wave 4 into the original wave 2 with target zone 47-45-42 area.

IF we see Resistance kick in and stifle the next rally bounce, resistance starts around 50, and the entire 50's is a danger zone to watch . The 50ma is a kiss of death resistance line to watch for. The rally bounce will need to show strength holding at the support steps as it climbs from one to the next, thru the 50's , and to watch and see if it reaches 60.


It was a nice double when it rallied from 34 to 68. Whats happening now?? will it show bullish strength again in the next 6 months? or has something gone wrong. The technical key to watch here is the resistance zone around 52/55/57 area, and whether it triggers stronger selling to create another downwave that has a track from 56 to 42/40 area to end the year. and begin 2019 down at the 40's.
The big rally that has a target around 90, was aborted when it failed to hold the 50ma zone around 62/60.


Ive seen many bubble stocks do this kind of rally. A big move from the bottom, that peaks at a Fib math target, but then Makes NO wave 2 pullback when it should have, it keeps on bubblimg into the Wave 3 target zone, and then slides sideways for a while looing like the Wave 4 "should look".... and then all of a sudden it collapses down and shatters the bullish pattern that was going so well until it got punked.


And now, this ETF has fallen back into the Wave 2 target zone 47/45/42 area, and remains uncertain what could happen from here in the next year.
What are the media spin "reasons/explanations" for this major downwave that broke down the rally pattern.??