:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | August 11, 2018
Analysis for the Week of August 13, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 10, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 121420 so far is trading down about 7.26% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Aug. 9, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2018 so caution is obviously suggested during this year since we have made a new low. Immediately, we are trading below last year's closing of 130930 yet above our Dynamic Pivot Point during this year residing at 50312. This does suggest a bounce to the upside is possible into the next target as long as this year's low holds. Thereafter, we could see a trend reversal into the following target due in 2019. Keep in mind that last year was an inside trading year. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030. Technically, we are trading beneath all three key projected support levels for this year leaving the market in a weak position.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 16% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 126700 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 120390. This provides a 4.98% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 121420. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 10%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 121420, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.16% beneath that level.
Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come November in NY Gold Nearest Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a high established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 121070 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 121070 closing yesterday at 121420. We now need to close below 121070 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 121080.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 30th at 120740, which was down 16 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of July 30th, which has been a move of.0107%. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 7 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 120740, which formed during the week of July 30th, and only a break of 120740 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Viewing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-519 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 522 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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