Zion Oil & Gas Inc (ZNOG)

[Imperial Whazoo]

The SEC filing this week lays out unambiguously the outside parameters of the worst case timeline. Simple as that.

They have only a certain amount of money remaining AND an extension of time to spud another well if they find oil or gas in this one. To quote:

Enough cash reserves to continue through September 30, 2018

An obligation to spud another well sits on the other side of their funds to do so, so they have to announce what is in the present well soon or they will not be able to raise money within the second well spud deadline. They run out of money prior to spud date on well #2, so OBVIOUSLY, if they intend to leverage their work on well #1 to take advantage of their requirement as regards getting another well spudded, they have to announce early enough to raise capital off of the news. As such, its a pretty cut and dried proposition, and all this hand wringing that is going on is both irrational and irrelevant.

They have "X" amount of money & "X" amount of time. Delays are not rational. So they will PR. Good news or bad news.... they run out of money if they fiddle around. Just read the plain English wording of which their filing this week consists.

I get tired of all these farces that everybody treats so solumnly. Calls to mind a lyric from a song by Jackson Browne:

"I get tired of all this circling and all these glimpses of the end"

I mean really, people, just read the wording of the filing and think rationally. It has to be as immediate as they can make it or they will run out of money and be unable to take advantage of their option to spud another well. And if they end up with a non-commercial well, they run out of money because they have spent it all on a dry hole and there will be no interest in the investment world in financing the next well, especially given the shortness of time they have to spud a second well.

Just game it out. The above is side "A".... why its likely they will announce and there is only a single side "B" possibility where there is a reason other than a dry well for them to delay: WAR

Suppose the government knows there is a commercial find but world politics crop up and the company is not allowed to announce due to the threat of war.... for example.

Well, if that happens, Zion will demand an extension and there will be deep pocketed Jewish entities willing to spud a second well when the government allows Zion to announce.

Game it out further.... suppose there is a commercial field here, but there is conspiracy in the air.

If you are writing this as a Tom Clancy novel, the internationalists backing Genie have oil but were muzzled but they have influence where the good ole boys behind Christian company Zion are sheep among wolves. They did all the work, got results, but a conspiracy makes them go BK and Genie swoops in, stealing it as a way to extricate themselves from the political debacle of the Golan find they had to hide.

Thats way out there in gaming theory terms and its not even remotely likely, but thats about the only scenario I can think of where there is a commercial find but we all get crushed at the end.

And basically, Israel has a problem with the Christian community if there is this kind of spy novel conspiracy in the works, and I think that Israel fully understands that it has a dire need to be supported by evangelical Christians. So I seriously doubt the government is going to muzzle them. If the world watched this happen, there would be a lot of investors who would have a genuine reason to hate Israel, and I am 100% sure the government knows it must not alienate evangelical Christians in the U.S

So, back to the game theory branch of "WAR". I would not be surprised to see Israel face a war in the Golan and in the south, and this may screw everything up. If there is war, it is more likely to happen at this part of the year than in the fall or winter, due to weather. So, there could be a delay if there is war. But since Zion would go BK if they are not allowed to announce (because they are running out of money & time for spudding the second well), it is simply irrational to theorize an outcome that does not involve a PR. As a matter of fact, it may be that they announce a huge find and this becomes the hook in the jaw of Ezekiel 38.

Summing it up: its my opinion they announce before August ends & I expect a huge find.. That's how I game it out, and why. As ever, it's only an opinion. To quote Sgt. Schultze from "Hogan's Heroes"

I KNOW NOTHINK!

Imperial Whazoo