A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[SFSecurity]

You're more than welcome Jon.

What this study and others I've done indicate that there is no simple approach to maximizing one's return. One's return is quite dependent on a variety of factors.

The key one, it seems to me, is whether people are scared s#$%less by something, like the current Facebook plunge, and continue selling as it slides down or enough of the big boys jump on it it goes back up. This seems to me to be more likely to happen this way when it is a single position that does this. If a bunch hit the skids all at once then it can be a much longer time frame before recovery begins.

The second big issue is when you get into a position. Is it near a top, skidding down, or in the bottom range. The spreadsheets don't have settings for these market trends, you have to figure out what settings to chose yourself, not an easy chore.

Tom's settings seem to work best in a vacillating market, neither headed significantly up or down.

The 15% SELL safe I used in testing the HUSKY spreadsheet with CGNX worked better because, on the whole the market was on its way up. However, simple BUY and go away worked better in a long term up trend.

Orcroft's method for buying in works best when the market is collapsing, otherwise one wold have a rather long wait to get started.