OK. I'll take a shot. I will take the unlikely assumption that there actually is some kind of technology - which I doubt. Be careful what you ask for...
How much better is the tech than VDSL2
There's no way to tell. The company has not offered any substantial comparison information. However, after reading the data sheet that I referenced in an earlier post, this company has configured Cuparq for 95% downstream throughput and 5% upstream throughput. VDSL2, on the other hand, is configured for symmeteric traffic - i.e. 50% downstream and 50% upstream. The most important number is total throughput, i.e. downstream plus upstream data rates. The tech sheet shows that Cuparq, which spends 95% of its load on downstream traffic, beats VDSL2 for download speeds, which spends 50% of its load on downstream traffic. That's not a fair or honest comparison. Trouble is, the VDSL2 standard requires symmetric transmission. If VDSL2 could be configured for 95% downstream traffic, it would beat Cuparq hands down, according to the tech sheet. It is also important to note that the company refused to release any details of the Telcordia test to Burstein, who could very easily have confirmed Rim's claims. In short, if you were able to compare apples to apples, (i.e. total throughput to total throughput) the tech would not beat VDSL2 - according to the company's own information.
How hard will it be to market Cupria if companies are already establised with the target customers.
It took Ikanos over $125 million to effectively produce and market its industry-leading products. It recently went public to raise a similar additional amount. If Rim had that kind of cash, they could possibly compete. They don't. As such, it would be virtually impossible to bring a comparable product to market.
Can the leadership and sales force get the job done? Why or why not.
Not without a buttload of money. Furthermore, there is no "sales force", unless you consider one person to be a "force". I don't.
Will standards be an issue.
This is probably the biggest issue if there actually is a tech. They have admitted that their product is not standards-compliant. Of course, I already told you that. Noncompliant hardware just doesn't sell. Customers are not willing to completely rebuild their infrastructures, which a noncompliant technology would require. This is a deal-breaker. Their only hope is to solicit a standards change. Ikanos did it with VDSL2, so it can be done. But, it took Ikanos 3 years to do it, and they had a shipping, tested product when they did it. Count on no sales until then - if ever.
What kind of revenue can we expect in 2007.
None. See the above. You can't sell a noncompliant product. Oh, and you have to actually have a product. Remember that they have projected technology revenue every year since 2001 but have yet to post their first dollar.
What other applications can be added to the Cupria family of chips.
You have to have a family of chips first. Crawl, then walk. Rim hasn't even begun to crawl.
Is a gofernment contract still probable.
It never was. The government only buys products that exist, and unless you are Haliburton, the contracts are competed openly. Contrary to what has been posted here, neither this company, nor any other company, has any kind of inside line to government contracting. Furthermore, the government includes in all of its procurements an analysis of "ability to perform". Rim has no product, nor will they have one for quite some time if ever. The government does not buy "future products" they buy stuff that is available now. That is a simple fact that I have explained to you many times. I have a great deal of experience with government contracting from both sides of the fence. The fact that RIM even alluded to this possibility is further evidence of their dishonesty. Do a little research on government contracting. Research GSA. Do some "good" DD and you will understand what I am talking about. The GSA red-herring was pure PR fluff and means nothing.
What kind of influence do both Tan and Wojcik have with target customers.
Who knows...Tan has that hair growth thing. There's that.
Will success with Telco's delivering the triple play over copper have any effect on Verizon's plans.
Telcos haven't delivered the triple play. Hence, Verizon's plans. I don't see that changing any time soon. Verizon is largely targeting the cable market, which has triple-play capability now.
How much difference does it make having VoIP, WiFi and Router software on the marketability of Cupria.
I'm not sure I see it as the marketing coup that the company says it is. All of the hardware for these features has pretty much reached commodity status. The chips for these features cost almost nothing. Other than saving real-estate on the board, I don't see any other real advantage. Even the real-estate thing is not much of a savings since the board will has to have the vias for all of these components anyway, and a combined chip would still take up about the same size as the sum of its respective components. Currently, a manufacturer has the ability to choose VoIP, WiFi and router hardware based on their specific needs and price point. An all-in-one package forces a manufacturer to settle for whatever feature set that Cuparq offers. If Cuparq doesn't offer a feture that a manufacturer wants, or offers features that a manufacturer doesn't want, the manufacturer is not happy.
There is a reason that there are discrete components on virtually every circuit board in virtually every electronics device. Manufacturers need the flexibility to choose the components that they want. They don't want, nor will they buy features, or the lack thereof, that are forced upon them.
If there was a demand for such an all-in-one device, somebody else would have already identified the market and made the device. It's not that hard to do for the big players.
Will more financing be needed.
Undoubtedly. I hesitate to bring up Ikanos again, since so many people don't understand the comparison. However, it is an apt comparison. It took Ikanos over $125 million to successfully bring a product to market. Rim would need a similar amount. I don't see that happening.
And on, and on, and on.
Instead, 95% of what is discussed on IHUB is totally irrelevant to what the shareholders need to know at this time.
Frankly, it is not for you to decide what "shareholders need to know at this time". I find it a bit arrogant of you to presume to be the arbiter of shareholder knowledge.
If your goal is to keep people from buying or to encourage people to sell, you are probably accomplished your goal with some people. Just remember that when Rim has a digit or more to the left of the decimal point, you will have hurt a few people.
I wonder how many people you have hurt with your incessant, unbridled, unfounded and untempered optimism, sprinkled liberally with obfuscation, and without a trace of critical analysis as the share price has seen repeated decimal shifts to the left...
It is pretty damn bold of you to speculate about how we *might* hurt someone *if* we end up being wrong, when, by the same argument, because of you countless people have been *actually* hurt by *actually* losing huge amounts of money. That "hurting other people" sword cuts both ways.
Also, the majority of people who are negative here, have not visited the Rim office, nor have spoken to anyone at Rim or anyone on the Board Of Directors for probably 2 or 3 years at least. Nor have they been to a shareholders meeting in the last 3 years. If you call that good DD, then that shows how clearly you are thinking.
"Good" DD consists of cirtical evaluation of the *facts*. I did speak to Ketch, and the last time we spoke, he told me a bald-faced lie. Part of "good" DD is knowing when the company is blowing smoke, and which things to take with a grain of salt. One day, I'll do a little research project and dig up some of your "conversation with Brad [or Ray]" posts. I perused them the other day. Not a single thing that you said that he said would happen has happened. Apparently, talking with company shills is not the great DD you think it is...
No one will be able to compete with the quality of Rim's technology anytime soon, IMO, but the question at this time is, how well they will be able to market it.
As you know, that is not the real question.
AI
