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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 28, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 30, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 27, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 281882 and is trading up about 5.43% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 280834 following the high established Wed. Jul. 25, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low creating an outside reversal to the downside. Nonetheless, the market remains still within support. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 300408 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 270190. This provides a 10% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 281882, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 6.16% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 253269. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a high at 279147 but closed on the weak side during June. We have now to exceed that level during July implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 269199 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 253269 becomes possible.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 280861.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 23rd at 284803, which was up 24 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 284803 to 279514. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 23rd reaching 284803 has exceeded the previous high of 279147 made back during the week of June 11th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 278924 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 284803, which was created during the week of July 23rd, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 259462 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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