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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 21, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 23, 2018

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jul. 20, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 280183 and is trading up about 4.79% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jul. 19, 2018. 0

The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 281034 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 274318. This provides a 2.38% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 280183, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 279147 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 280190 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 285835 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 280119. Thus far, we are still within a reactionary phase upone daily session.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 16th at 281676, which was up 23 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 281676 to 278924. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 16th reaching 281676 has exceeded the previous high of 279147 made back during the week of June 11th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 277073 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 281676, which was created during the week of July 16th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 259462 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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