Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[BIOChecker4]

Thoughts on Rett, AD and PD studies:

It is possible that the FDA has already cleared the Rett IND but that for some reason(s) Anavex has not yet started the trial. I recall TGD has said in the past that the company would announce likely when the trial starts, not when the IND has been cleared. Nevertheless, I can't find any examples where the lag time to start a trial has been so long once an IND has passed the 30-day mark, which suggests something weird may be going on. It would be welcomed if TGD could provide some sort of update on the Rett IND/trial during the next earnings call, though if he is in discussions with the FDA then any public comment would be inadvisable. TGD doesn't take calls from anybody who might ask hard questions. And you can be sure that the softball-throwing analysts will not be of any use.

Regarding AD and PD trials, approval to start the trials does not necessarily mean the start of the trials is imminent. As someone said the other day, it's going to take a lot of time to identify and recruit all the patients who have the correct genomic profile. And there may well be other factors that will have to be resolved first.

Putting aside the totally unsupportable nonsense about a cabal, it seems likely to me that investors see no reason to rush into the stock, as the trials haven't even started, and it's going to be a long wait for data. I anticipate a relief rally when trials are announced but the big upside is a long way out. While TGD has indicated that the Rett trial will be of short duration, I suspect investors have discounted the likelihood that any definitive data, i.e. approvable by regulators, will be reported so quickly.