Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[MycroftHolmes]

RE: Flawed Analysis

We are indeed being subjected to analysis today even more flawed than usual.

Much data manipulation.

STOP just reading the lines AVXL spews and the associated p-value on a contrived measure. If you first exclude ALL that dropped out (poor response for probably all...likely WORST responses). THEN you exclude the next 20% of those remaining you STILL get a negative MMSE slope on average for the (contrived) top 80% of the Phase IIa study. How does this reconcile with the amazing improvement reported? IDK but AVXL has a lot of 'splaining to do.

Also looking at 33K genes to pull out 2 that have some effect is just absurd. Think of the probabilities of how many matched this just by chance. There were many.

Sees like the market knows when they smell BS.

I just noticed the actual poster and powerpoint is available...the above was written before I reviewed...maybe something is 'splained...but I doubt it. Will follow up after review if I get a chance today (time limited).

One wonders if the “Much data manipulation” this analysis starts off with is meant to give the reader fair warning of what is to come...

Also looking at 33K genes to pull out 2 that have some effect is just absurd. Think of the probabilities of how many matched this just by chance. There were many.

This is just a non-sensical argument. The SIGMAR1 gene of the Sigma Receptor (which is our drug target!) is one of the genes being referred to here!

Either this is deliberate obfuscation or a fundamental misunderstanding of the KEM analysis process. In truth, it seems to be a mix of both.

If you first exclude ALL that dropped out (poor response for probably all...likely WORST responses). THEN you exclude the next 20% of those remaining you STILL get a negative MMSE slope on average for the (contrived) top 80% of the Phase IIa study. How does this reconcile with the amazing improvement reported? IDK but AVXL has a lot of 'splaining to do.

This is entirely flawed... but instructive as it demonstrates how most in the market STILL do not understand open-label Adaptive Trials & Precision Medicine.

The news today is more than I had hoped for, quite frankly.

The rosy scenario that I had sketched out called for a SIGMAR1 mutation to be a key genetic flag AND that flag would break our way and keep a large pool of patients (80% it turns out).

In addition, I hoped they would find an additional known AD gene flags (like APOE4) to be relevant.

COMT fits squarely in this category. My next question would be: how do these flags correlate with APOE4 in the high-responders.
(I haven’t read this paper but here is a quick example of relevance of COMT: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2765959/)

Overall, just really, really good news. We advanced the ball on SIGMA1 which is highly relevant to Anavex’s pipeline, and we advanced the ball on AD understanding which the AD community will need to include in the conversation.

As I always say, the stock price of pre-revenue Bio-Techs is driven by proximity to revenue. There was no imminent revenue thus no surge in stock price.

But the science is advancing quite nicely.

As always, everyone do your own due diligence and ignore all board charlatans who claim to do it for you.

The stock market is a game of poker... one does not fold just because your opponent frantically tells you to do so.

Cheers

Mycroft