:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | July 21, 2018
Analysis for the Week of July 23, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 20, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6826 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Jul. 19, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains positive.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 162% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 8289 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6741. This provides a 18% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 8898 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 32%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 6826, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 17% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, so far this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 7446. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a low at 6340 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 7446 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1193% in a stark panic type decline.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of July 2nd has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7290 made back during the week of May 21st. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of April 16th. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 4205 made the week of June 19th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 6772. Additional support is to be found at 6422. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th. The last high on the weekly level was 7527, which was created during the week of July 2nd.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6580 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7446, which was created during June, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
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