Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 14, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 16, 2018

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jul. 13, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7101 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jul. 12, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite weak.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have since been in a bearish trend overall for 9 years. The correction since that high has been 82% with the next general key area to watch will be 1516 any a closing below this level calls into question the survivability of this market going forward from a technical perspective.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 8289 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6741. This provides a 18% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 8898 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 32%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 7101, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 14% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, so far this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 7446. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a low at 6340 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 7446 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 7306. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 7214. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet.

Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6580 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 7446, which was created during June, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

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