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:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 9, 2018

ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 6, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7380 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 7214 following the high established Tue. Jul. 3, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains somewhat positive. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 8289 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6741. This provides a 18% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 8898 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 32%.

This market on the monthly level has been making new highs which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish run in motion for the past 32 months. The Channel Technical Resistance stands at 7519 for the next session. A closing above that will signal a breakout to the upside once again. Currently, June we are trading above all our Indicating Ranges, which suggests that projected resistance above the market stands at since we have closed higher at the end of the last month 7855.

A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, so far this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 7446. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a low at 6340 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 7446 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 7273.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7527 to 7214. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 2nd reaching 7527 has exceeded the previous high of 7290 made back during the week of May 21st. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.



Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6580 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 7446, which was created during June, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

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