Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 9, 2018

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jul. 6, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 160690 so far is trading down about 6.27% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend0Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168200 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 160400. This provides a 4.63% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.

This market on the monthly level has been making successive new lows. The last 2 lows have been progressively making lower lows implying we have a bearish run in motion for the past 12 months ever since Thu. Dec. 1, 2016. The Channel Technical Support rests at 156117 for the next session. A closing below that will signal a break to the downside once again. Currently, we see projected extreme support below the market residing at 94400.

A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2017. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 159450 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 159450 closing yesterday at 160690. We now need to close below 159450 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 158150.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0893%.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 173500 failed to exceed the previous high of 173600 made back during the week of April 16th. That rally amounted to onlysix weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of April 30th and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.



Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 9 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 160700 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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