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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 30, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 2, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 29, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 271837 and is trading up about 1.67% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Jun. 28, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite weak. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 273694 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 270190. This provides a 1.28% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

From a broad long-term perspective, the last important event was a high established during 2017, which was a rally from the low made back in 2016 amounting to a one year Knee Jerk Reaction.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 255380. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a high at 274224 but closed on the positive side during May. We need to exceed that level during June to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 259462 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 244655 becomes possible.

Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established in 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 253269, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 274319. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

This market is neutral for now on all our weekly indicators. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 279147, which was created during the week of June 11th. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th. However, we still remain above key support 270191 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 255380 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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