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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 23, 2018

Analysis for the Week of June 25, 2018

WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 22, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 275488 and is trading up about 3.03% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution following the high established Wed. Jun. 20, 2018. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 278658 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 270190. This provides a 3.03% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a high at 274224 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 283596 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.

Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 253269, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 276173. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet.

Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 weeks. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. The last high on the weekly level was 279147, which was created during the week of June 11th.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 255380 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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