NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

The 23.1 months blended mOS has increased by now (IMHO). Around 3/17 we had 108 living and 223 dead (if we include the worst scenario that all LTFU are also dead).

With 223 events 111-112 lived less than 23.1 months from surgery and 111-112 lived longer than 23.1 months. After 3/17 virtually all the OS events represent patients who have lived longer than 23.1 months with the exception of the 27-28 patients who were alive at 3/17 but were only 19-23.0 months on trial. After 7/17 all OS events represent patients living longer than 23.l months.

With an estimated maximal OS event rate during the last 15 months of 2 per months we would now have 30 additional or 253 OS events of which
about 114 represent patients who lived less than 23.1 months and 139 who lived longer that 23.1 months. OS event patient No. 126 or 127 is at the midpoint of the 253 OS events and is the 12th or 13th patient to have suffer an OS event after the event involving the 114th patient who lived a maximum of 23.1 months. If we assume an OS event rate of 5-6 patients per months after 23 months on trial, we could add at this time an additional 2 months to the 23.1 mOS. I would be satisfied with a blended mOS of 25 months.