S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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:::: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 23, 2018

Analysis for the Week of June 25, 2018

WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 22, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 769282 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 767912 following the high established Wed. Jun. 20, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 829224 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 732096. This provides a 11% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 879041 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. Last month produced a high at 749242 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 749242 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 789756 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 767683.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 18th at 780660, which was up 43 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 780660 to 763573. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 780660. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 772954 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 743705 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 19 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 weeks. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 764287 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 780660, which was created during the week of June 18th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 648413 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 680596 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 763727, which was created during March, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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