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S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 16, 2018

Analysis for the Week of June 18, 2018

ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 15, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 277942 and is trading up about 3.95% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 276173 following the high established Wed. Jun. 13, 2018. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 278658 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 270190. This provides a 3.03% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a high at 274224 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 283596 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 284880 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 278017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 11th at 279147, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 279147 to 276173. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 11th reaching 279147 has exceeded the previous high of 274224 made back during the week of May 21st. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 weeks. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 273951 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 279147, which was created during the week of June 11th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 255380 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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