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Wednesday, June 20, 2018 1:06:59 PM
Tariffs Could Derail NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally
By: Almanac Trader | June 20, 2018
In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 25 of the past 33 years with an average historical gain of 2.4%. This year the rally could begin on or around June 27 and last until around July 13.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last eight years, up seven times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a respectable 2.7% during the 12-day span.
Consistent end-of-Q2 weakness, especially in the week after June’s option expiration week, usually contributes to the setup of NASDAQ’s mid-year rally. This year tariff concerns could either setup this rally nicely or possibly completely derail it if China and the U.S. continue to take turns implementing more and more. Any weakness, particularly sharp, brisk declines near the end of June could still make a great entry point as the first trading day of July is generally strong and the full-month of July is the best month of the third quarter.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/175078537818/tariffs-could-derail-nasdaqs-mid-year-rally
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By: Almanac Trader | June 20, 2018
In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 25 of the past 33 years with an average historical gain of 2.4%. This year the rally could begin on or around June 27 and last until around July 13.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last eight years, up seven times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a respectable 2.7% during the 12-day span.
Consistent end-of-Q2 weakness, especially in the week after June’s option expiration week, usually contributes to the setup of NASDAQ’s mid-year rally. This year tariff concerns could either setup this rally nicely or possibly completely derail it if China and the U.S. continue to take turns implementing more and more. Any weakness, particularly sharp, brisk declines near the end of June could still make a great entry point as the first trading day of July is generally strong and the full-month of July is the best month of the third quarter.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/175078537818/tariffs-could-derail-nasdaqs-mid-year-rally
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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