:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | June 16, 2018
Analysis for the Week of June 18, 2018
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jun. 15, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 127850 so far is trading down about 2.35% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Jun. 14, 2018. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 127760. This provides a 5.89% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 130990 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 3.60%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 128120 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 128120 closing yesterday at 127850. We now need to close below 128120 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 130480. Thus far, we are still within a reactionary phase down one daily session.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 9 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0668%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 9th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 136540 made back during the week of January 22nd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of October 16th. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 123830 made the week of December 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 9 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 9 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 136940, which was created during the week of April 9th. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 130660 above the market.
Critical support still underlies this market at 126270 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April, and the market has turned lower falling to 127790. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 130460 on a closing basis.
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