Friday, June 15, 2018 7:39:39 PM
Taking the math up one level, and understanding that algebra will only reasonably estimate of what KM curves will produce, here is the math for overall OS results.
Overall Median (OM) = 23.1 (my guess closer to 24 & pennies now)
Treatment Median (TM) = x + y
SOC group Median (SM) = 0.46 x + 0.54 [ x + (z)y ]
X = soc median (I believe 17 ish is likely)
Y= delta treatment benefit
Z = delayed treatment discount efficacy (I think 40-60%)
The money equation
OM = [SM + 2.3TM] / 3.3
Use whatever assumptions you’d like. My conservative guesstimate gives me 26.2 mo TM vs 17.9 mo SM which I gare-Fing-T is highly statistically significant. The last 32 enrolled to treatment is a similar GFT that FDA already knows PFS is significant and we all already know 3 yr milestone is a win.
WI Dendream
I can’t wait for the puck to drop!!!!!!!!
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