NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[BlackDoggie]

No problem at all. While I’m thankful for the interim data we have, the format doesn’t make bulletproof analysis simple. Which is why so many of us have sat around for the last week saying “this looks really good... I think... right?”

As a practical matter and despite my previous proof to the contrary, your greater point likely stands. Given what we know about enrollment and event curves, as well as other issues such as subgroups who may see marginal benefit, I think it’s fair to assume that the population median is likely (but not assured) to be on the higher end of the OS observations that have already been recorded. However, if in fact the “last in, first out” accounting (if you’ll pardon my flippancy with human lives...) that would bring the median down WERE to be occurring, then that would suggest that the remaining patients would be contributing to an insanely long and consistent tail, thus increasing the expected mean OS. Not a terrible thing either.

If I were a betting man, I’d wager a good bit that the truth lies somewhere in between and we’ll eventually see a median towards the higher end of events already recorded and we’ll also see patients in the tail extending the mean. In fact, I suppose I’ve done exactly that. Maybe I’m a betting man after all.