NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[BlackDoggie]

You’re operating on the assumption that all patients started at the same time, therefore any events past the (N/2) observations must have a larger observed value than previous observations. If this was true, you would be correct... but this isn’t necessarily true for this case.

Since we’re aware that we don’t know when each patient definitively began treatment and evented, all that one can infer with any mathematical certainty is that the set of observations that we currently have - ie the individual mOS for each patient who has died - CONTAINS the eventual median of the full population. Unless we have some certainty about the start and the end point of each patient, all we know is that the median can’t be longer or shorter than an event we’ve already recorded. We can make some inferences based on the limited data that we have... but it is false to say that the median can ONLY go down/up from here.

Hopefully NWBO is rendering this point moot as I type.