NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | May 5, 2018
Analysis for the Week of May 7, 2018
WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. May. 4, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 165190 so far is trading down about 3.65% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend following the high established Thu. May. 3, 2018. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 171760 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 162040. This provides a 5.65% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come June in NY Silver COMEX Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. Last month produced a high at 173600 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 161500 closing yesterday at 165190. We now need to close beneath 161500 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 16th at 173600, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 19th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0743% in a stark panic type decline.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 16th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 168950 made back during the week of March 5th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of January 22nd suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This decline has been rather important penetrating the previous low formed at 161000 yet the market closed above it just cleaning out the stops. This does not yet imply a shift in trend. We need to close below the previous low just technically to raise that possibility. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 162950. Additional support is to be found at 161950. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 173600, which was created during the week of April 16th. The last weekly level low was 161000, which formed during the week of March 19th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain above key support 161950 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Observing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 7 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017, and the market has turned lower falling to 160700. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 161000 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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