Bioelectronics Corp (BIEL)

[Simpsonly]

Hey JGD - Best to keep in mind you are working numbers from patients only and potential ActiPatches, without factoring in any estimate of market penetration or usage of ActiPatch by that total patient group . . . so, your numbers "2 plus 1 plus 6 Actipatches for B. Braun U.K. a Year." and then built out to "Total is somewhere 1,440,000 and 3,420,000 a year by themselves." assumes a 100% penetration, which in my view is not realistic . . . .

I would estimate 3% would be highly profitable, 5% wonderful and 10% a rocket launch. Perhaps the addition of ActiPatch to the NHS insured Tariff, the scourge of pain drugs and the cost benefits will take penetration higher, but there is no existing model on the planet to help with estimating this. I would be very interested in your market penetration estimates, not optimistic, not pessimistic, just cautiously realistic . . . .thanks