NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | April 21, 2018
Analysis for the Week of April 23, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 20, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 171630 and is trading up about 0.10% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Apr. 19, 2018. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 171760 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 169100. This provides a 1.54% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 161000 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 177050 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 168050.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 16th at 173600, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 19th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 173600 to 165450. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 16th reaching 173600 has exceeded the previous high of 168950 made back during the week of March 5th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 weeks. The last weekly level low was 161000, which formed during the week of March 19th, and only a break of 162950 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 173600, which was created during the week of April 16th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 161300 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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