It isn't a strong opinion. I don't know. I don't Believe. I'm using logic. It is bound to be wrong. The higher up the decision chain I am wrong, the more wrong my story.
1. Apple likes Liquidmetal the alloy and actively researches its use
2. Liquidmetal has an relationship with Apple
3. Li has stated that a major reason for investing in LQMT is #2
4. Industry 4.0 is a real thing
5. 5g is a real thing
6. Wireless charging is a real thing
7. The RF transparency of LM and Gorilla Glass is real
8. The cost savings of 1 step solution is real
9. The trend toward automation is real
10. The need to diversify a supply chain is real
11. Shipping takes time and costs money
Question #1: Is Apple going to continue using stainless or aluminum forever? Why not?
Question #2: Is Apple going to always manufacture in China given that automation makes it cheaper near the location?
Question #3: Who has the capacity to make 200 million cell phones annually if Apple chooses to use BMG?
Question #4: If not Eontec, who? With whose machines and whose formula?
You can't see what is going to happen, if you simply look for reasons to disprove everything that benefits you. What is logical, and who has the leverage?
To not use BMG, Apple needs to find another material, or stay with stainless steel and aluminum forever. Not likely. Conclusion: They will likely use BMG.
LM105 is too expensive and too restrictive today. Eontec's is cost competitive. Assuming they use BMG, to not use Eontec's formula needs to improve LM105 and the machines before its competitors do. Not likely. Conclusion: They will use Li's formula and machines.
For all of the above to be true, Li has to say "yes". Li is the majority shareholder in LQMT. LQMT cannot enter CE. For Li to have paid $64 million to enter LQMT, he must have had a reason that has an ROI greater than $64 million. You could argue he wanted to steal our patents for non-CE related manufacturing, in the hopes that making tiny, expensive parts will pay him back quickly. You could argue that he expanded capacity in California so that he could make tiny, expensive parts in a very expensive place with really expensive labor as a method to recoup his money. Not likely. Conclusion: He wanted a relationship with Apple, and an American base of operations.
Am I right? Who the f&%^ knows. However, I flatly reject the following:
1. We will never see revenue from Apple, Tesla, etc. because we have never had revenue from Apple or Tesla.
2. We will never see revenue from such companies because we can't imagine ourselves getting rich.
3. Medical is the only reliable source of revenue, and Apple should be dismissed. Apple, the most secretive company in the world, would have made surely made an exception to its gag order for the 271 shareholders of LQMT, so that we could sleep well at night.
4. Tony and Paul cashed in options 9 month ago, so all logic is null and void.
5. My timeframe for getting rich doesn't match up with Li or Apple's plans for world domination. Therefore, it can't be true.
I'm not fooling myself. Even if I am correct, the world is messy. But if I can't at least write a plausible scenario using this sort of logic, I am out. Why would I invest here if I couldn't?
AI
