Tesla Model 3 Production Rate: 3,000 Units Per Week?
If this forecast reflects reality, Tesla really might be on its way to producing 5,000 Model 3 units per week in just a few months.
Daniel Sparks (TMFDanielSparks) Apr 16, 2018 at 2:46PM
Electric-car maker Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model 3 production stumbled out of the gate, with the automaker significantly missing its first targets. Initially, Tesla was aiming to wrap up 2017 producing Model 3 at an average rate of 5,000 units per week. Instead, Tesla produced just 2,425 Model 3 units during its entire fourth quarter. Further, Tesla finished the year with a weekly production run rate of only about 1,000 Model 3s.
But Tesla recently proved its Model 3 production was gaining momentum when the automaker said it was producing Model 3 at a rate of 2,000 units per week earlier this month. And now Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker suggests production has exploded to about 3,000 units per week, putting Tesla well on its way to achieving its revised target of a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 units per week in just a few months.
General assembly of Tesla vehicles at Tesla's factory in Fremont, California.
TESLA FACTORY. IMAGE SOURCE: AUTHOR.
3,000 units per week and beyond
Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker, which uses Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs) to forecast Tesla's weekly production rate, currently estimates weekly Model 3 production at 2,998 vehicles per week. This is particularly notable given that the model likely lags Tesla's actual production rate by as much as a few weeks. In addition, it was only two weeks ago when Tesla said it had achieved a production rate of 2,000 units per week, so this would mark a significant jump in a very short period of time.
But here's where things really get interesting. Bloomberg's trend feature for its Model 3 Tracker, which provides a three-week projection based on the most recent data, is currently forecasting a weekly production rate of nearly 4,000 Model 3 vehicles. Bloomberg, however, is careful to warn that its trend estimates "are subject to sudden corrections. If Tesla doesn't maintain the surge, we could see those estimated Trend rates suddenly plummet in the coming weeks."
To highlight how significant a production rate of 3,000 Model 3 units per week would be, this extrapolates to 39,000 Model 3s per quarter and 156,000 Model 3s per year. In 2017, Tesla produced just over 100,000 Model S, X, and 3 combined.
