From a long’s (mine) perspective, one thing needs to be straightened since it comes up in the board often:
It is this famous quote, “turning good thing to bad.” In all honesty, most longs’ views are wrong. When one follows this company and its filing and news release consistently, he or she would realize that that quote was specifically in answering to FUD raised at that time regarding whether that 300 or so patients were only screened, recruited or actually enrolled in the trial. So its meaning is that yes the 300 plus patients were in effect enrolled in the trial, and it didn’t include patients from the independent pseudo arm, etc. If one recalls, that temporary halt for screening new patients has never been explained, but what was and has been certain is that it has nothing to do with safety.
The halt seemed to be revealed first in Germany, but it could be actually initiated in US (uncertainty). The halt in Germany (and/or UK, Canada) might be independent with that in US or they actually address the same issue (one more uncertainty).
Weighed on all information known today, it seems that halt in US was related to failed PFS, or very much failed PFS, which on surface is a very bad thing, but in essence may indicate strong efficacy, unexpected and undersigned for. In other words, the more the immunization reaction the patients have, the more the possibility of and serious the pseudo-progression, and the more effective the vaccine.
Now the hard fact might be that the “wolfpack” might uncover this secret, i.e., the failed PFS (it could be a recommendation from DMC to halt the trial due to PFS failure which is the primary endpoint), via either email hacking, or a defected or corrupted or unprofessional investigator, or any other means. All in all, since then the wolfpack and its associates have cast this into a mould in their mind: the trial is a failure with the best evidence being the continually declining and collapsed share price from teen to dimes (short it at will and it’s no brainer), despite in two rare occasions that the company has denied the collapsed share price had anything to do with material negative news that the company might have known or possessed at that times.
The state today which we have all known is that it seems that the company has since strived to achieve an OS result that would see unprecedented long survival patients with meaningful separations among various groups, with the most large and meaningful one being between the early and late vaccined patients.
And of course, this needs time and patience, more time and more patience, but we have seen our patience erode like a tree unrooted in a mudslide due to seemingly endless trial and equally endless dilution! It is thus the time to unblind the trial, or never.
[I should remind those who may reply but see no reaction from my end: I have only one post per day. Sorry for that.]
