Zion Oil & Gas Inc (ZNOG)

[Imperial Whazoo]

Here's my thought on the best outcome, which I am very hopeful will actually happen.

I think there will be a very good result to the test and the find will be VERY high pressure, so what they will do is perforate the casing between 5000 and 6000 feet. The geology at that depth is quite "porous" so the high pressure deep find will migrate to the lower pressure porous zones and this will have the net result of the high pressure hydrocarbons spreading over the whole of the lease. This will, in effect, create a lower depth field that they will be able to drill at significantly lower cost.

So, instead of having to punch multiple very expensive deep wells, they will, in effect, have a big, moderately deep, "low-cost-to-drill" field that underlies their entire lease.

Thats the way I see it happening. Pretty cool if it happens. We'll see.

As to the short artists returning en-masse' next week.....

If the short sellers actually show up again, it will be after the 10th because they will be guessing that a lot of people will cash in the new shares. They will expect "dumpage" by folks who recklessly thing the gifted shares are a kind of manna from heaven that they can shake out of the long-n-strong faithful.

The problem with this line of thinking is that the actual arrival of the shares is entirely open ended because the company controls the timing in the date of issuance of shares. Since the short artists could see themselves getting smashed by the company using its power to control the issuance date, it may be that there will be a lot less shorting than most are speculating will happen.

Since the tests will be actually completed fairly quickly, the company can reasonable delay issuance and not be seen as being irresponsible, and if the tests are tremendous, it will be impossible for short sellers to time a short attack because there may be little or no time between the delivery date of the issued shares and the announcement of the good news. I mean, if it were me running the company, I'd manage it to the millisecond to effect the decision making of the company's short-side foes.

So, it may actually be that shorting is NOT likely next week (or before the announcement of the news.... 2 weeks to a couple of month's ouit in the future).

The fly in the ointment is that, if the news is incredibly fabulous, the Israeli government may try to force the company to limit the enthusiasm due to military concerns.

Whether the government can squelch incredibly fabulous news is, in my opinion, highly questionable. Its simply a truism in the markets that somebody ALWAYS knows somthing, and this means that tremendous news will be impossible to hide. By that time, however, the short artists will have lost their sliver of opportunity. So nete/net, I don't expect there to be a massive short artist attack.

We'll see, I suppose.

Imperial Whazoo