123Tom's TA study group

[123tom]

So what does a 50+% market crash look like.

they say your basic Stock Market Crash is likely to be about 50 or 60 % haircut.
and that's what we got the last 2 times.

IF the market has peaked now (in Late January) this stock market has soared so high in recent years that even a 50% Crash, only looks like a basic technical pullback.
That's how stratospheric this fake market has become in the last 10 years.
Hows this for a pullback / S+P 500

and the last 2 took 2 and 1/2 years,and 1 and 1/2 years to play out , a kind of slow motion collapse.
The first downwaves, like the one we are having now,is likely to bounce, and then more downwaves follow, but it doesn't Look like any Crash, until its already half way there. That's one of the problems that investors have when they HOLD ,after the first downwave, thinking its only a normal pullback, and more rallies will follow. By the end of the next downwave big losses have already happened. and THEN,after
9 months to a year has passed, maybe the "official crash event" is announced,and a big fuss is made of it, and the media will give it a jazzy name like Black and Blue Thursday, but the reality is , it started a year earlier, when the highest peak was made. IF the current stock market has potential to Crash in this cycle, It might have begun already, when this year peaked in Late January, so far.... now when you look at this S+P chart, you can also see the danger at the 2015 peak as well. The market made a big double plunge but didn't become a full crash. and instead of that, we got treated to 2 more years of a hyperbolic bubble rally straight up to peak at 2873.

Back in spring of 2009,after the last crash, the first rally bounce pulled back and Stabilized around 873 area. a perfect 2000 point rally wave has developed since then.