S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of April 9, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 6, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 691511 and is trading up about 0.16% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Apr. 5, 2018. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 694583 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 677948. This provides a 2.39% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 879041 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come June in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. Last month produced a high at 763727 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 690107 closing yesterday at 691511. We now need to close beneath 690107 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 680596.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 12th at 763727, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 763727, which was created during the week of March 12th. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 690107 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 687969 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 648413 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 663067 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 763727, which was created during March, and the market has turned lower falling to 680596. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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