Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 24, 2018

Analysis for the Week of March 19, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 23, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 134990 and is trading up about 3.10% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the reaction low made on Tue. Mar. 20, 2018, but the key low was made 16 days ago on Thu. Mar. 1, 2018 at 130360. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 3.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 6.99%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. We now need to close below 123830 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Focusing on the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Concentrating on the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.

Focusing on the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Concentrating on the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 133990. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 136540, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of February 26th, which has been a move of.0348 percent.

Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 14 weeks. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th, and only a break of 130950 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 136540, which was created during the week of January 22nd.

Critical support still underlies this market at 126270 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, and only a break of 130460 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 136540, which was created during January, and the market has turned lower falling to 130360. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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