Naturally i hope Green Kinght + you are right.... that we see $500m plus... we shall see
So, AMER ROADS (before the Detroit windsor tunnel extension for 20 years vs 6years left and improvements, etc) had around ~100m equity with original debt of $500m + 100m swaps - those swaps exploded higher to about $330m during the crisis.
Total debt (all wrapped by Syncora) was $830m. Greenhill appraised the propery at liquidation of $205m
Syncora holds it at $170m today
Reasonable Mkt EBITDA RANGE would be 12x - 30x - based on Syncora's years remaining (Alabama - infinite + Detroit 2045 or whatever) -- ergo $250m to $600m+
Perhaps a good mid point is 250m to say 15x = $300m +
only 2 shops (Odeon + NatAlliance) covering Syncora's debt are pencilling in $250m for Toll Roads Sale and 50-80m for the Case
These two shops only cover Syncora's DEBT, do NOT cover the equity.
Regardless, i think these numbers are conservative, and we likely will see upside surprises above those numbers.
SWAPs were terminated..
American Roads owns a portfolio of toll roads in Alabama and Detroit The American Roads project filed for bankruptcy in Q3'13 (Case 13-12412 SDNY) The Plan went effective in Q4'13 and, as a result, Syncora is the current equity owner of the project
SGI insured $500MM of total bonds As of 7/18/13, $334MM in MV of Swaps were also insured by SGI On 9/12/12 American Roads, Citi and Barclays novated swaps where Syncora became beneficial owner The Swaps were terminated by SGI on July 18, 2013 American Roads' Disco states that Syncora is the back-to-back swap counterparty a/o the bankruptcy
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