Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[DennyCrane550]

Rock,

Naturally i hope Green Kinght + you are right.... that we see $500m plus... we shall see


So, AMER ROADS (before the Detroit windsor tunnel extension for 20 years vs 6years left and improvements, etc)
had around ~100m equity with original debt of $500m + 100m swaps - those swaps exploded higher to about $330m during the crisis.

Total debt (all wrapped by Syncora) was $830m.
Greenhill appraised the propery at liquidation of $205m

Syncora holds it at $170m today


Reasonable Mkt EBITDA RANGE would be 12x - 30x - based on Syncora's years remaining (Alabama - infinite + Detroit 2045 or whatever) -- ergo $250m to $600m+

~> every dollar over $170m should be accretive to Book Value
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=139360906

Perhaps a good mid point is 250m to say 15x = $300m +

only 2 shops (Odeon + NatAlliance) covering Syncora's debt are pencilling in $250m for Toll Roads Sale and 50-80m for the Case

These two shops only cover Syncora's DEBT, do NOT cover the equity.

Regardless, i think these numbers are conservative, and we likely will see upside surprises above those numbers.

SWAPs were terminated..

American Roads owns a portfolio of toll roads in Alabama and Detroit
The American Roads project filed for bankruptcy in Q3'13 (Case 13-12412 SDNY)
The Plan went effective in Q4'13 and, as a result, Syncora is the current equity owner of the project

SGI insured $500MM of total bonds
As of 7/18/13, $334MM in MV of Swaps were also insured by SGI
On 9/12/12 American Roads, Citi and Barclays novated swaps where Syncora became beneficial owner
The Swaps were terminated by SGI on July 18, 2013
American Roads' Disco states that Syncora is the back-to-back swap counterparty a/o the bankruptcy

Alinda Exposure Outstanding
Issued Amount Coupon Maturity
Series G-1 Bonds 12/19/06 $198.0 L+32 12/30/31
Series G-2 Bonds 12/19/06 $298.0 L+38 6/30/28



Net Exposure Outstanding
Bond Principal Amount Outstanding $496.0
6/30/13 Swap Agreements Outstanding 334.0
Less: Previous UCF Purchases (496.0)
Less: 7/18/13 Terminated Swaps (334.0) Assumes terminated Nov '12
Equals: Total Risk Outstanding $0.0

Greenhill American Roads Valuation (midpoint 2013) $205.0


===== As far as McQuarie Case Damages/Award

Could be 10% of 500-830m = ~ ergo 50-100m // 10-15% was an award for a Fraud case in $2.5b Aussie Toll Roads -- that is comparable to this case

or
Full damages

of

$170-205m liquidation value vs DEBT wrapped ~500-830m

ie 200-500m

nevertheless, remains to be seen.

Wide range of possibilities to the upside, without much visible downside.