Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[rockraider3]

With record Infrastructure capital ready to be deployed and few assets that they can chase, I do expect very healthy interest in American Roads.

Indiana Toll Road went for ~32x EV/EBITDA. Australian ports have been going off at 25-27x. This is a bit dated but multiples haven't been eroding since 2014-2015, if anything they are expanding.

http://www.ampcapital.com.au/AMPCapitalAU/media/contents/Campaigns/Perspectives2016/PERSPECTIVES_Vol-01_05-Equity-infrastructure-valuations.pdf

For me, less than 25x would be a bit of a disappointment, but I'm hard to please. If American Roads EBITDA is ~$20MM, I think we see $500MM. Maybe $600MM if we see 30x.

According to Green Knight, American Roads debt was $800MM+ back in they heyday. So even at 30x, we are well below what Syncora insured just 10 years ago, therefore I don't see $600MM as too incredible (even if $500MM is maybe a bit more likely).

I'm also now wondering to myself, if we are crystalizing a ~$200-300MM fraud claim with Macquarie? If we insured $800MM in debt, and the turned around enterprise is now only worth ~$500MM.... does that not easily quantify and spell out (at a high level) the financial materiality of the fraud perpetuated. There's an argument for that, to be certain. Although if we got $50MM plus legal expenses, I'd be happy with this -- fraud is really tough to prove in court.