S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 17, 2018

Analysis for the Week of March 19, 2018

ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 16, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 748199 and is trading up about 8.38% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Mar. 15, 2018. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 816303 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 711151. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 867696 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 633458. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. Last month produced a low at 663067 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 744109 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 756344.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 12th at 763727, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 763727 to 746319. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 763727. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 755264 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 724667 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 weeks. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 720531 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 763727, which was created during the week of March 12th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 633458 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 692408 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 750577, which was created during January, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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