NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | February 24, 2018
Analysis for the Week of February 26, 2018
ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Feb. 23, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 133030 and is trading up about 1.60% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Feb. 22, 2018. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 3.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 111520. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 17%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come March in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 136540 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 136540 to 130460. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 134930. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 132280.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 136540, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of February 5th, which has been a move of.0333 percent.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 weeks. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th, and only a break of 131630 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 136540, which was created during the week of January 22nd.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, and only a break of 123830 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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