NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[f3tt3f]

Valuing this is difficult.
It could be zero, but if L is a blockbuster, and Direct also works as well as we hope, the global market is immense.
Every solid cancer. $120k per 3-year treatment. (~12 million patients, but lets say 6m for major markets who can pay)
That's $720B potential revenue. $7.2B for just 10% market share.
Pick your valuation multiple.

DCVax-L alone: in the US, 23,000 glioma/gbm cases projected for 2018. $2.7B possible revenue.
Triple for global major market figures: $8B x Revenue multiple.

EBITDA is an unknown, but cost of goods could be quite reasonable for L, (tumour resection is done as part of biopsy/SOC so that cost shouldn't be borne by NWBO). Direct has lower manufacturing costs but higher administering costs (image guidance) but not exorbitant. Let's say COGS an average of 20-30% across both. Pretty great margins.

Where NWBO sits on that zero-hero continuum is what everyone is betting on.
If it provides patients a better alternative to SOC, and they're willing to pay for it, then it's a boatload more than $5.
If it's marginal and uptake is slow, it's might go the way of Provenge.