Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sts66]

I thought events would accelerate as patients got older, but perhaps the sickest went first and the healthiest are left.

I think it's partly that - the sickest were out of the "haven't had a 1st event rate" pool early - and as more people have events, the pool shrinks, so a constant rate gives fewer events as time passes, takes longer to accumulate the total needed. I think the aging part is a bit overblown as far as how it affects overall rate - I don't think risk changes a huge amount between ages of 65 and 70, for instance, with one caveat that you can't possibly model - it's well known that people's overall health can take a dramatic change for the worse when a spouse dies, for instance, and retirement can greatly improve your health. Well hell, I might have just changed my mind on this - isn't the avg. age of R-IT patients 65 or so? Retirement might cause a slowdown in event rates - but again, impossible to predict.