A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[jaiml]

Hi Clive,

2525.391 / 0.85 = 2971 = price at/above which next selling resumes
2525.391 / 1.15 = 2196 = price at/below which next buying resumes

My testing based on the S&P500 index, dividends excluded, produces almost the same results as yours. I actually do something similar like you but only go back 30 years. 30 years denotes a typical someone's investment horizon, and is long enough to capture different market cycles.

My model shows the last buy occuring in Feb 2009. Interesting that there has been no buy signals for 9 years. The model's next buy/sell is 2,193.9/2,968.3. Also interestingly, current buy levels require (roughly) a 22% decline from the the Jan close of 2,823.81, i.e. what is generally deemed to be a significant correction, or bear market territory.

I run different accounts and I don't AIM them all, but this is a pretty good guideline. I keep telling myself 2,200 on the S&P before I pull any trigger. We only got half way through.