NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Diamondjim61]

There is no question in my mind...

... that at ASM, Linda, in discussing the data review each spring, concluded they already knew they had a home run... and that by waiting... it was only to see how much "additional home run" they would get.

One could assume their will be another gathering of data this spring before they conclude the trial, IMHO.

Not that I liked hearing that, but that was what was insinuated.

Quote:Pretzel Logic — Steel Dan



LoL

She has directly related they already hit a home run from a blinded perspective; however, it’s comical watching people rely upon Alice in Wonderland, or torture isolated phrases to suggest an additional home run means no home run was already hit. Good luck selling that to an impartial audience.

Let’s review her statements regarding this issue again, this time with feeling. Please read through the end.


First part.

Quote:
What we do is, we look, and all we're allowed to see is blinded data, so we're looking at aggregate blinded data. In immunotherapy, the big focus is the so-called long tail of the survival curve. That is the HOME RUN. And what it means to have the long tail, is that the survival steps down, and when people continue to live, the tail goes way out here to the right. If a treatment achieves a long tail, that's the HOME RUN. I mean, part of it is the SLOPE of the graph, that's great too. But the big HOME RUN is the long tail. And you're seeing that being talked about with all of these therapies... with checkpoint inhibitors, everyone is super-excited because something like anywhere from 12 to 20% of the patients who respond in the first place are in a long tail and go for a couple of years. What people don't generally clarify is that even in the best case of cancers like melanoma where you're talking about a 25% response rate, you're talking about 25% of the 25%, talking about like 5% of the total participants in the trial. If some treatment were to come along and have 20 to 25% of the total patients in the trial, that would be considered a very large tail, and the question is how big and how long. That's what we want to see, and that's what you as shareholders should want to see. We share your anxiousness like it's Christmas morning. But when we stop the trial and unblind, the data collection for the purposes of the trial stops. After that, we will never know the full extent of the long tail. The long tail is the key focus

.


Follow up:


Quote:As we reported in ASCO last year, a huge number of patients, way more than expected, were still alive. We have to weigh that... how much of an ADDITIONAL HOME RUN would we get if we continue vs. going with what we have now.




You add that to Dr. Bosch (also of NWBO management) stating on June 5, 2017 that the OS event rate decreased drastically down to two events per month in the months leading up to June 5, 2017, and you obviously have the turning into the blinded tail. Then they get updated on survival as time runs along.

LP clearly wanted people to know they believe they have two home runs in slope and tail -- blinded of course. In addition to that the third leg of the stool talked about frequently is that everyone appears to be living longer.


Let's review.

1. "Great" slope. Home run.
2. Long tail. Home run still leaving the park. (also way more people alive than expected)
3. Early longevity apparently from entire group. (everyone seems to be living longer)

All blinded of course.

When you add these three things together, if accurate, one invariably must conclude the median has shifted to the right.