Happy New Year Clive, Re: 2018 prognostications...........
The cap weighted indexes could get a real thumping should any one of the top 5 cap companies disappoint. The top five represent ~$3.3 trillion in capitalization. The top 30 companies represent ~$10 trillion. So, 5 companies represent a big chunk of the major cap weighted indexes.
(top five are AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, and FB)
Quite a bit of money seemed to shift to ex-US during the last 12 months. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues. Tax law changes in the US may offset some of that trend.
I assume the blue line is the XIV+ portfolio and the red line is a general index? Congratulations on a great year.