Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

I have said before, but not all agree, that the Rett trial is a big risk, but a useful one.

Either Rett results are not so great and Missling would indeed have failed early and the share price will be in the gutters until something substantial and positive occurs.

Or Rett proves the case for A2-73 and increases investor confidence that PD and AD will work out too.

In the event A2-73 does not work out in Rett, the company will not have spent all of the first tranche of LPC funding and, as you say, can turn their attention to other pipeline drugs.

Finally we need to recall that the LCP agreement provides for another $50M for shareholders to approve, so that the show can go on.

The idea that running all 3 promised trials in parallel lowers risk, I don’t buy. Smarter to stagger them just in case the company needs another lease of life and chance at success.

We will only know the outcome after the Rett trial gets going. To me if that lifts the share price, say back to $6 before readout, taking some profit seems sensible.