Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Talon38]

Tred, submitted my last post before reading yours linked to the "Fools" article on M&A predictions. Personally, I don't think Biogen will want to be acquired. Especially. if they could secure their number one position in the M/S market and and establish a leading position in the Alzheimer's. That they could do that if Anavex's Sigma_1 platform drugs prove to be effective in completed trials and they are successful in acquiring us. It's obvious that will have to take place in 2018 given the repatriated funds scenario.

If Biogen takes some risk before mid summer, I would estimate their bid to be in the $5B range based on their 2013 $3.25B plus royalties purchase of the full rights to Tysabri and the fact that none of ANAVEX's drugs will have reached market. If however, towards the end of the year the RS trial has been successful and the FDA has granted provisional use of 2-73 and the AZ, PD and possibly M/S trials are going well, our value may be $10B or above. All this is my best guess based on a projected very hot market and looking at what is being paid for approved drugs which have a very limited patient market today. If the FDA gets behind using 2-73 as a low cost prophylactic for a number of CNS diseases and 3-71 and the rest of the Sigma-1 pipeline prove effective....."Katy bar the Door" by the end of the decade.

Just an old pilots view from 30,000 feet!

Talon